The Lucky Donut

I really had wanted to plan this a bit better to take advantage of as many World Cup promos and new player signups as possible, but as usual I'd left it too late.  So after getting back from town today about an hour before kick off, I scrambled to at least find some kind of good value bet I could put on the England game.

I discovered a £60 free bet offer with Victor Chandler.  I've used their poker software but not their sports betting site so I qualified for this as a new player.  After placing your first bet of between £10 and £60 you are awarded the same amount as a free bet to place on another event in future.

The only stipulation is that the first bet you place has to have odds of evens or greater - basically you can't lump £60 on a sure thing at 1/20 odds and still take them for the free bet.

I decided to back England on the half time/full time market at 5/4 - I win £75 if they are leading at half time and win the match. My original plan was to have lots of different free bets working for me all hedged against each other for a sure-fire profit.  With the "odds must be evens or higher" rule, which applies to most promotial bets, this is tricky but I'm sure it can be done!  Without enough time to do it properly though today, I was happy enough having a flutter on England with a second chance free bet still to play.

Sure enough, the early goal means England are ahead at half time and this bet is in good shape.  I wimp out a bit and lay off part of the bet with Betfair, making sure that I'm guaranteed a win - I'll make a net profit of £60 now if England win and £15 if they choke - freerolling!  England win - £60 kerching - and I still have another £60 of Mr Chandler's money to bet with on the next game.

I mentioned I was in town before the game: having realised that I've continued to grow outward since last summer and can no longer fit into most of my shorts, I thought it was time to get a new pair and show off my lovely white legs again.  The world truely appreciates this effort.  With that mission accomplished, Claire also finds herself a bag that will be most useful for our Vegas trip (T-42).

I ponder whether I should get one myself - not the same one of course as it's a woman's bag - but something similar, but kinda more manly.  I don't really know what I'm looking for, but all I can think of is Jack Bauer's bag in the latest season of 24.  This bag went everywhere with him, and of course contained almost anything you'd ever need to use on a counter-terrorist mission, despite Jack having not worked for CTU for quite some time until that morning.

So, I need to find a "Jack Bag". Reckon I can pull this look off?

You just can't beat free money from Party Poker!  Their reload bonuses are very easy to clear even at the low limits, so when a 20% up to $100 bonus popped up on my account yesterday I got busy.

I decided to play for this bonus using $25NL only.  I wanted to see how no limit compared to fixed limit hold'em as I've mostly played $1/$2 to clear these bonuses so far.  Because the wagering requirements are based on a number of raked hands, regardless of the actual amount of rake paid, the limits do not really matter.  In fact a quirk of this system is that you have to play less hands at $1/$2 to clear a bonus than at $2/$4 - although you pay more rake in total, $1/$2 games are raked in 25c multiples, whereas $2/$4 is raked $1 at a time.

I thought you would probably need to play more hands at $25NL than $1/$2 as there would be fewer flops, but really this doesn't seem to be the case - I'd usually bank on slightly more than 50% of hands being raked at $1/$2.

Stand by, stat fans - here's how I did

Hands played:  1540 (for 1000 raked hands)
Hours played:  23.63 (approx 6 hours @ 4 tables)
Rake paid:     $30.10 (so Party Poker lose $69.90 on this promo!)

Amount won:    $35.52 (4.61 BB per 100 hands)
Win rate:      $5.92/hr
Bonus awarded: $100

Rate w/ bonus: $22.60/hr

Certainly not bad for the smallest game in town.  And for those who like even geekier stats, here's how I was playing:

Vol. Put $ In Pot:       14.29%
Pre-flop Raise:           7.21%
Post-flop Aggression:     3.72
Won $ When Saw Flop:     33.59%
Went to Showdown:        20.99%
Won $ At Showdown:       50.91%
Folded SB to Steal:      87.50%
Folded BB to Steal:      80.00%
Attempt to Steal Blinds: 18.57%

So it's a fairly small sample size, but the diagnosis looks pretty good - firmly rooted in the Tight/Agressive camp.  Poker Tracker gives me a little cash bag icon - result!

If I try to be objective, my blind play looks kinda weak, although 8 times out of 10 is probably nothing to be concerned with.  Need more input.  When there are a lot of limpers, as you get in these low limit games, there's not too many opportunities to steal.  I could be raising a bit more pre-flop, but again with lots of limpers I'm aware that my range of hands to raise with is tighter than usual, and limping into multiway pots with small pairs and suited aces becomes attractive.

Oh, and I appear to be rather aggressive post-flop.  That one really surprised me as I still think I check/call too much on the river.  The aggression factor is calculated as the number of times you bet or raise divided by the number of times you call (checking is ignored).  A number between 2 and 3 - betting twice to three times as often as you call - is thought to be nicely aggressive.

Grrrr, then.