Strategy

PokerRoom 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed)
Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)

Preflop: is SB with As, Qh.
3 folds, MP2 calls, 2 folds, lucky_donut raises, 1 fold, MP2 calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) Kc, Kd, 4d (2 players)
lucky_donut bets, MP2 calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) Td (2 players)
lucky_donut checks, MP2 folds.

Final Pot: 3.25 BB
Main Pot: 3.25 BB, returned to SB.

Results:
No showdown. SB wins 3.25 BB.

Well I certainly can't complain. I just don't understand what hand he could have had here though to fold like that, on the turn and in position to take a free card. If it's worth $2 to call the flop, it's worth $0 to see one last card, surely? This wasn't a disconnect either, it was a pretty quick fold but he was around next hand and not sitting out.

I was in check-fold mode here, perhaps a little weak but thinking that there's not much I'm beating that can could call the flop bet - you have to expect a pair or better or a flush draw, which just hit. Best case is AJ or A9, which is pretty unlikely. For the size of the pot, I'm not going to throw chips away trying to take this one by force a second time. I can't call any bet with one overcard and a gutshot draw, none of which are clean outs.

I can't see a small pocket pair folding here to no bet - nothing to be embarassed about, and it feels like he was drawing to something, missed and then decided he didn't want to show. Occasionally you see this, however daft it is, just so players don't have to reveal their cards but it's always on the river - this was a card too early. It would have to be two cards lower than a K, which is a muppet call on the flop, but not QJ (which now has a straight draw), QT or JT (which now has a pair) - so what, Q9 or J9 calling a flop bet here and hoping to catch something?

I don't get it, but tyvm anyway

Nice to be on the receiving end of hands like this for a change. Twice today as well, with back-to-back big blinds having poor hands turn into winners...


PokerRoom $2/$4 Hold'em (9 handed)
Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)

Preflop: lucky_donut is BB with Jc, 9c.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button raises, SB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (8 SB) Ks, 2h, 9s (5 players)
SB bets, lucky_donut calls, UTG+1 folds, MP3 calls, Button raises, SB calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (7 BB) 9h (4 players)
SB bets, lucky_donut raises, MP3 folds, Button calls, SB calls.

River: (13 BB) 7c (3 players)
SB checks, lucky_donut bets, Button calls, SB calls.

Final Pot: 16 BB

Results:
SB has 8h Kh (two pair, kings and nines).
lucky_donut has Jc 9c (three of a kind, nines).
Button has As Kc (two pair, kings and nines).

Outcome: lucky_donut wins 16 BB.

Nice bit of fishing - yay me. It's close, but the pot's a bit too big here to give up second pair on the flop even with the two-suited board. After the raise though, I figure I need to improve (unless he's raising a spade draw), but boy do I... The overcall on the river from the small blind holding top pair and no kicker is pretty nice - he can surely only hope to be splitting this pot three ways?

Preflop: lucky_donut is BB with 7s, Qs.
2 folds, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 3 folds, lucky_donut calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 9d, 5s, 6c (4 players)
lucky_donut checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets, lucky_donut calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 3d (4 players)
lucky_donut checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets, lucky_donut calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls.

River: (8.75 BB) Qh (3 players)
lucky_donut checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks.

Final Pot: 8.75 BB

Results:
BB has 7s Qs (one pair, queens).
MP2 has Ad 4s (high card, ace).
MP3 has 8c 8d (one pair, eights).

Outcome: lucky_donut wins 8.75 BB.

Little draw, slightly better draw, oh ok then, top pair will do. I'm getting 8.5-1 on the inside draw, a bit low but with 4 players still in I figure a straight on the turn would be good for at least 2 more big bets. The double-gutshot on the turn has plenty of pot odds though. However when the hand I made was just a pair of queens, I really didn't know whether to bet this out of position so I craply check - I'm happily calling one bet here but if I bet and get raised things get expensive with a very mediocre hand, totally weak. Figure I probably lost a bet from 88, who might well make a crying call.

Coincidence?  First hand I play on PokerStars today and my premium hand loses to connected garbage.

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)
Preflop: Hero is BB with Qh, Qd. MP1 posts a blind of $2. UTG raises, 1 fold, MP1 (poster) calls, 3 folds, SB calls, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, MP1 calls, SB calls.
Flop: (12 SB) 5d, 4s, 7s (4 players) SB checks, BB bets, UTG calls, MP1 calls, SB calls.
Turn: (8 BB) 7c (4 players) SB checks, BB bets, UTG calls, MP1 calls, SB folds.
River: (11 BB) Ac (3 players)Hero checks, UTG checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, UTG calls.
Final Pot: 14 BB
Main Pot: 14 BB, between Hero, UTG and MP1. Pot won by MP1 (14 BB).
Results: Hero has Qh Qd (two pair, queens and sevens). UTG has 6s 6h (two pair, sevens and sixes). MP1 has 7d 8s (three of a kind, sevens).
Outcome: MP1 wins 14 BB.

OK so he'd posted to play and it was only one bet to call.  But with 78 offsuit.  Out of position.  And to an early position raise.  I have to be pleased about having this player at the table though really, and what's more pleasing is that he didn't raise when his hand improved to a certain winner, giving me a much cheaper showdown than I should have had, and letting me check-call the scary river.  Admittedly, with any card other than an Ace on the river and I'd be coming out firing, allowing him to raise but surely the smooth call - particularly vs two opponents - was a big mistake.

I don't think you can fold for one bet on the river here as many players would bet regardless after I check the scare card.  Leading out might be better to gain extra bets from worse hands (in this case, a juicy 66 makes a crying call).  However I still don't know if it's an easy fold for one more bet and a big pot - can we be sure a raiser actually has a pair of aces or better, or is just taking a stab thinking I probably do not have an ace after betting all the way so far.

Below is the transcript of a post I made to the UK Poker Info forums, which somehow actually resulted in me getting banned from the site and the entire thread being deleted - it was only my 3rd ever post!

Whilst there is clearly an element of smugness in my being able to find fault with the original poster's strategy hints (notably, this is one of the players who used to come to our home game, and now thinks that he is too good for us) I really did enjoy writing this and found it very satisfying to be able to create what I think is a well-reasoned analysis.

I'll let you judge for yourself.  I've colour coded this for your viewing pleasure - my response is in blue, original poster is red and too-good-for-home-game is in green.

The thread began with someone asking for advice on how to play a live satellite tournament, and initial responses advised her to play tight in the early stages...

knowing u always only play prem hands and if I had a good chipstack I would call your raise with anything like 67 suited

ok how come u would call my raises with 67 suited????

if flop comes low cards which gives me some str8 options it would be hard 4 u to call a bet or a raise with cards like AK A10 etc unless u had an overpair but even so if I had an open ended  str8 I would be 2 /1 to hit it.

There are just so many things wrong with this logic...

For starters, let's face it - you're calling a raise with garbage.  You know you are behind in the hand and are - at best - a 2:1 dog.  Assuming the raiser's range from early or mid position is AK-AJ and pairs AA-99 then you are actually going to be a 4:1 dog about 40% of the time (36 ace-hands vs 24 pairs).  Therefore the preflop action is serious negative equity.

(Note: I've since realised I miscounted here, there are 48 ace-hands - 12 suited and 36 unsuited - making you a 4:1 dog 33% of the time.).

Then by smooth calling you just keep adding to your problems.  You not only don't make any attempt to win the pot yet, or to define your hand, you also encourage other well-stacked players to join in and create a pot that becomes very difficult to get away from when you do catch some kind of donkey draw.  You might get the odds to keep going which would be great in a cash game when going bust is not a problem.  But in a tournament you could be risking your future with 4-1 shot after the turn, or have to make another mistake by folding when you actually have the correct odds to draw.

Once you are in this pot, suddenly calling with suited connectors starts to become attractive - but not for you, for the next guy to act, and the next one, and only because of your mistake.  You're just stuck in the middle not knowing where the hell you are at.

But as you didn't mention position at all, lets assume that you are on the button and have great reads on both the blinds and know they are going to fold.  So you smooth-called a raise from a solid player who only plays big hands, and expect them not to bet at almost any flop? Now you're going to raise then back to try and find out how much they like their hand?  The price for this information just went up.

The times your opponent missed, if you've got the balls to raise you'll win a fair pot, probably 3-4 times your investment pre-flop.  The times you're wrong (I can't see why we shouldn't still use the 40% 33% number here) you're making a huge mistake, spewing chips and digging a very deep hole for yourself on the next street.  You are investing much more than you can ever hope to win.

On the other hand if you are talking about a "first to the pot wins" move on a low board you are in much better shape to make this play out of position, which means limping in early position with a shit hand and then calling a raise, or stubbornly defending a blind.  Or maybe you know that the player is transparent and will bet if they hit the flop (or still like their overpair) and check if they miss.  This is about the only opportunity you will have to bet and make it hard for her to call.

The problem here though is that your implied odds are a big fat zero. Whilst no-limit poker allows you to play hands with a negative pre-flop expectation because of the potentially huge payoff you can get when you make a monster hand, calling a raise and playing heads up against a premium hand is not the way to do this.  Your pre-flop call is dead money, and then you're having to make a large bet to win it back, along with the other player's initial raise.  Net profit is what - 3 big blinds?

Finally, if your intention is to outplay Little Miss BigCards when the board comes low and you think she's missed, the hand selection is irrelevant.  You don't have to have a small hand do it - any two will do.

Basically, (original poster), don't be afraid of getting calls like this.  You need 'em.

Apologies for the amazing technicolor dreampost - it seemed a better idea before I painted it up.  Hope it's readable!