The Lucky Donut

Is it raining?  No, it's just the poker gods pissing on me through a sieve.

 

Played at Gutshot on Wednesday this week, back to the £30 + 1 rebuy tournament.  Everything went so right in the first 20 minutes that I knew I was doomed to not get very far.  With pocket kings twice and hitting at least 2 pair on most of the flops I played I was up from 1500 to over 4000 by the end of level 1.  Even when I hadn't hit the board, I was betting and picking up more pots than I thought would be possible in one round of a super-fast tournament.

I'd never actually counted my chips up to this point, for once taking note of Kenny Roger's advice, but had to take stock after losing with TT against a desparate all-in AT.  The all in was about 1200, and it left me with about 3000 afterwards.  But things never recovered after that.  I peaked way too early and by the time the crap shoot came into effect my timing had become just dreadful.  Seeing KTs in mid position I moved in for my remaining 2500 - blinds coming round were 250/500, and there were still 40 players remaining.  "I have to call that" is never a phrase you wanted to hear, especially when it leaves the caller obviously pot-committed.  Yet someone puts in a third raise and I'm left calling for clubs with something of a whimper when they flip over KK and AA.

Thousands of motorists in Stoke rejoiced and a million sat nav units simply sighed as the New Improved "D Road" was finally opened today.

This extract from The Sentinel, explains why it took so long, and why it's been worth the wait, and the endless queueing.

Two-and-a-half years of traffic gridlock in Stoke-on-Trent came to an end today as the 40 million overhaul of the A500 was finished and the road was opened .... The complex project, which was started in March 2004, has involved diverting two rivers and a canal, building two 20-foot bridges and laying of 56,560 tonnes of new road material such as tarmac.

Journey times are expected to be cut by an average of four minutes at rush hour - and up to three minutes at quieter times.

Hooray for me winning through to the Sunday Poker Dome final on Mansion.  If I get 1st or 2nd in that bad boy then I'm on my way home to Vegas, to play on TV and in front of a live audience in a converted movie theatre.  I'm on a semi-mission with this one.  I've wanted to play the final for a few weeks but haven't had many opportunities to get in it.  Had considered buying direct to the $215 final but decided not to, but there's only one freezeout satellite each day at 8:15pm, which I seem to forget about and miss the start much more often than not.

The final four played very cagey for a long time, with not many hands going to a flop.  I was stealing plenty, even before that.  Much more often than I usually do, but I'd recognised the need to build a big stack when only two players were going to get anything.  The players eventually started to notice my relentless stabbing at blinds and began to fight back.  "Quit raising the blinds" said one.  Well, I'm sorry, it's been working well for me so far.  But hey, now I know you've finally caught up so it's time to change gears.

Well, first it's time to get lucky, picking up KK against JJ and leaving us three handed.  And I have a decent chip lead now too.

With blinds at 150/300 Mr Please-don't-raise-me pumps it up to 900 from the button.  I have AQ on the big blind and about three times his stack.  Here's where I still haven't decided whether I played the hand like a muppet or a genius.  Instead of putting the pressure back on him, I decided I was far enough ahead to get a bit tricky and try and end the thing.  I just call his raise, and the big blind folds.  The board brings J88 with two clubs.  I check and immediately call his 900 bet on the flop.  I'm not sure why, but I guess I could be ahead, or I could try and outplay him anyway.  I consider whether I actually have the balls to put him all on in the turn regardless of the next card but there's hardly time before the turn brings another J and I move all-in.

Again, this is either stupidity or genius, and I'm still torn between the two.  I may well have the best hand, using the two pair on board and my ace high.  But there's also a high chance I'm splitting, and so the bet is only good if he will throw away the same hand or one that beats mine.  He may fold an ace here, but it's unlikely, and I'm almost certainly getting called by any hand that beats me, unless he is extremely tight and puts me on a J, then he might throw away a small full house or a bigger two pair.  But can I check-fold this hand now?  I don't think I can, so I may as well bet it just in case I can get him to fold a winner.

The screenshot below tells the bizarre story.  I was ahead the whole way.  Therefore it was genius.  Clearly.

 

So I know I'm a bit slow with this one, because whilst Sky+ is diligently taping tonight's NFL games for me, I'm still watching last week's Monday Night Football from the DVD I made to watch on the train.  Once I'm actually used to travelling at 7am I'll probably be able to watch things, but I'm not sure whether that will be before the football season is over or not.

Anyway, I was actually not paying much attention whilst I was playing a fixed limit Hold'em tournament on Empire Poker that I'd started by accident (but actually ended up finishing 20th from over 1300) and ordering myself a new cellphone all at the same time.  But somehow I was drawn to this caption which flashed up for all of about half a second.

 

I'm not sure what information the caption guy hadn't been bothered to type yet, but the game was effectively over so he could well have gone home early leaving someone else to fill in the gaps.  Jacksonville were kneeling on the 1 yard line to run out the clock giving a final score of PIT 0 - 9 JAX.  Apparently the first time a Monday Night Football game had ever seen a single figure total score, and only the 5th time in history a defending championship team had failed to score at all.

I know I really wasn't paying much attention so why do these really quite useless facts stick with me even now?

Back from London and I played the Thursday night freezeout at Gutshot again. It's looking like I'm going to be down there Thursday and Friday for the foreseeable future, which in terms of having a poker tournament to play in the evening should be just about perfect.

However I'm already starting to get frustrated with it, and I've only played it three times, cashing once and coming close the other two. Last week there were three tables left when I busted from just of 90 runners. This week I finished 17th from 98, with 9 getting paid. One coinflip can make the difference between money (and having to decide just how much you should tip the dealers in a self-dealt tournament) and just finishing early enough to get the last tube back (Barbican station closes at 00:30, and I was running through the barrier at 00:15).

For a £50 tournament, the structure is surprisingly oppressive. With a starting stack of 2500 and 20 minute blinds, you get an hour of poker followed by three hours of racing off random cards and trying to get lucky. When the blinds were 600/1200, the average stack was little more than 6000. It never really gets any better than this. Players drop fast, with an all-in on almost every hand. There's almost never a smaller raise than the whole lot, even for the chip leaders who will only end up playing against a crippled stack that actually represents a fair chunk of their hard earned chips and leaves themselves crippled when a miracle four hits, or something.

I went home after facing a situation that I don't think could have played out any other way. I hope someone will correct me if I was a complete donkey here. I am on the big blind with 6600 left, which is now falling behind the pack, but I haven't had any kind of stealing opportunity for two rounds and playing 8 handed the blinds are eating me faster than ever. My blind is 2000, leaving me with 4600. A player makes a minimum raise to 4000 and everyone else folds. I look down at J9s. If I fold, I have a small blind of 1000 to post next hand and 3600 more which won't do any damage, which would be a sorry option to take if my hand was completely hopeless, but in this situation J9s is much too good to let go. The only choice is whether to push all-in right away or call and move in on the flop regardless. I plumped for the latter, although I can't really see the extra 2400 into a pot of 9000 ever getting any hand to fold. Maybe if the board comes AKQ I could force a small pair to pass. Unlikely though.

After fighting for nearly 3 hours to stay alive against the madness that was happening, my fate was sealed by a queen-high flop to give my opponent's KQ an almost certain winner.

Obviously three of these is not enough to judge whether I have any kind of long term edge. Although there are some very good players there they make up only a fraction of the field of nearly 100 players. The dilemma I have is that I actually feel quite confident about playing this again, it's just such hard work in the later stages - AND the middle stages! - that I just don't know if it's how I want to spend my evening when I'm working away from home.

Part Two: Leaving Las Vegas after getting your ass kicked [20m32]

In case you hadn't noticed there are many ways to lose money in Vegas. As I'd been playing mostly tournament poker then many times I'd be driving home empty handed, usually as the result of a sudden and cruel beat. The soundtrack I've tried to put together here is based on those times although the same kind of thing would very likely work if you just dumped your bankroll on blackjack or craps. I just didn't try that on the last trip to find out

Faithless - Salva Mea [10m48]
And yo, reality is dreaming, just below my skin I'm screaming

Yes, there is a radio edit, but I can remember thinking it sounded completely cut to shit when I heard it on Radio One for the first time. So half of this playlist is taken up by one track - a bit greedy, but what a track! It takes four minutes to get going, just long enough to make it onto the freeway before the euphoria kicks in. Sure you lost this time, and sure you're mad about that moron who couldn't let his flush draw go when you had him in a world of hurt. Just below your skin, you're screaming, but the rest of you is ready to move on.

Magic Numbers - Forever Lost [4m11]
Looks like it all went wrong. What am I to do?

I could easily have put this song on the driving to Vegas playlist, and quoted "I want to go where the people go. Cause I'm forever lost". There's almost no bad time to play this record, one of the best jangly pop songs ever written. Piled full of musical cliches, just you try not to tap and sing along with this, and see if you aren't smiling by the end of it.

Moby - New Dawn Fades [5m33]
Directionless, so plain to see a loaded gun won't set you free. So you say.

OK I don't really get this either, but humour me. How do you follow an uplifting dance classic and a bouncey happy pop song? With something very angry and very depressing of course! Obviously we still have something to scream about. One last chance to get it out before we get home. And with this Moby takes a great Joy Division wrist-slasher and holds back the urge to run it at 1000 BPM. On paper it sounds truly dreadful, but the result is simply spinechilling. Possibly the only Moby track to not be used on a commercial yet.

Near misses, on account of having nearly 11 minutes taken up just by Faithless... Take a long drive home and add these. In this order.

Bloc Party - So Here We Are [3m52]
It all went wrong, again. ... I figured it out.

Linkin Park - Breaking The Habit [3m16]
I don't know how I got this way, I know it's not alright so I'm breaking the habit tonight

Prodigy - No Good (Start The Dance) [6m17]

Played the EPT Baden satellite today with the W$ I cashed in from not playing the Dublin satellite last weekend.  Very tough game.  I raised once and folded to a reraise and after that they were all over me - two players in particular, both Scandinavian if you think that's relevant....  Couldn't get any respect and couldn't pick up any pots uncontested, and never saw a hand to do any real damage.

Whittled away I end up losing a race in the most frustrating way. Can you believe the board didn't pair?

Preflop: Hero is BB with Js, Jd.
6 folds, SB raises to t300, Hero raises to t1445 and is all-in, SB calls t1145.
Flop: (t2890) Jc, Kc, Ts (2 players)
Turn: (t2890) 5s (2 players)
River: (t2890) Ac (2 players)

Hero has Js Jd (three of a kind, jacks).
SB has As Qs (straight, ace high).

So I'm not going to Switzerland and I'm also not going to Vegas. 4th in tonights Poker Dome qualifier on Mansion. Which was much softer by the way, but you'd expect that for $22 instead of $475. I had aces cracked early on, fought my way back, ran into quads with a full house, managed to not go broke and almost recovered before finally going out 4th with 2 getting seats. A good performance considering the beats, but not enough to put me on the road to anywhere.

I am sitting in the Virgin Trains 1st Class lounge at Euston station, playing on PokerStars.

Free coffee, free biscuits and a 20% deposit bonus.

Does it get any better than this?

 

This is something I was toying with in Vegas for ages, then ran out of time before I could actually post it. So as a result it's probably lost something in transalation. The idea was that I was trying to build the perfect ipod playlist for driving into and out of Vegas. Our house was about a 20 minute ride from anywhere, with the strip lights visible from about half way.

The first thing I found was that Vegas is just so intense that if the music you listen to driving there is too fast or too cheesy it just becomes sensory overload. Much of the music I would normally drive to is excluded this way; whereas Orbital's Impact kicks ass when you are driving in and out of the tunnels around Birmingham City Centre, or you can use the pure cheesy goodness of anything by Flip and Fill to make almost any journey go faster, these didn't last 30 seconds on my drive from Green Valley to the Strip.

I've allowed myself four different playlists - about 1h20m in total, depending on traffic signals - for four different occasions. There is no way I'd have been able to pick just four or five tracks for this so cut me some slack! It also means I get four blog entries for the price of one... Until my web host (hey wait, that's me!) tells me to take the illegal MP3s down, you can listen to the tracks in full! Oh and look, I slipped a few links in there that didn't make the final cut too...

I actually do have a video tape of the drive in both directions (camcorder wedged in passenger seat headrest - ok, yes, it's very sad) and I might edit it up one day with this soundtrack just to see how it works.

For now, here's part one:
Driving into Vegas for a Night o' Poker [20m57]

1. The Who - Baba O'Riley [5m01]
Teenage Wasteland. They're all wasted!
This playlist has to be uplifting, without being too intense. The Who give us a perfect opener that builds slowly and has classic fast-a-bit-slow-a-bit moments that make your hair stand on end. I can't take credit for this selection, it just happened to be on The Point one evening as I left. It wasn't on my ipod before, but it is now.

2. Freeland - We Want Your Soul [5m07]
Watch these pituitary retards bang their fucking skulls together and congratulate you on living in the land of freedom
This is about as intense as it can get, so it has to come on the playlist before the Vegas lights are fully visible. For a song that requires your body to move in directions that are just not possible whilst driving, it's almost dangerous to include it here. But it's great.

3. Pet Shop Boys - The Soddom and Gomorrah Show [5m19]
It's got everything you need for your complete entertainment and instruction. Sun, sex, sin, divine intervention, death and destruction.
A song about sin city, although admittedly not this one which still has plenty of destruction to make way for yet more new construction. Divine intervention need not apply. This one works just as well during the day as at night.

4. The Donnas - Take It Off [2m40]
Let me take you on vacation, just do it, you don't have to ask. Go on and take it off, shake it off baby for me
The Donnas are the band The Darkness should have been. Classic, fun rock music. Which track I pick here really doesn't matter, let's face it this does all sound the same. I could just have easily put Andrew WK in its place, partying hard, except he's just a little less sexy. Just rock out and enjoy this one for exactly what it is.

5. The Go! Team - Panther Dash [2m50]
(Instrumental)
A tune that somehow sounds like it's ending before it's begun. And then it carries on a bit longer. Impossible to explain, just click the damn link! This sounds great at any big hotel-casino when you are bombing around their service roads to get the car dumped quick as quickly as you possibly can.

A very near miss was Delgados version of Mr Blue Sky.
Runnin' down the avenue, see how the sun shines brightly in the city.
But I assumed it's always dark - or at least the sun is on its way down - at the start of the journey. If it's still light, substitute this for track one and bounce around a bit.

Part 2 coming soon ...!

I often worry when I'm multi-tabling and all of a sudden there's a rush of hands that I want to stop and take a minute to think about whether I played them right. You can be folding away for ages then suddenly three big hands come along at once, just like these. Long entry, bear with me.

Hand 1:

PokerRoom 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Jh, Js.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls, Hero raises, 3 folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 3h, 6s, 5c (4 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 calls, MP2 raises, Hero 3-bets, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (9.25 BB) Qh (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds.

River: (11.25 BB) 2h (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

Results:
UTG+1 has 8d 9d (high card, queen).
Hero has Jh Js (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: Hero wins 11.25 BB.


So should I put in one more bet on the river here? Clearly it's not going to get called by the busted gutshot draw but should I be betting here for value? The 2h completes just about every sensible draw going and UTG+1 has not shown any aggression at any point, he's just calling along looking like he needs another card to be happy. Plus, I still only have one pair, smaller than the highest card on board. It's hard to figure a Q is out there, but you never know. I didn't see any value betting here, but I could only think about it for a split second whilst other tables were flashing at me. I still think I like the check.


Hand 2:

PokerRoom 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 4h, Ah. CO posts a blind of $2.
1 fold, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 2h, 8h, Ts (6 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, CO folds, SB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 9d (5 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 raises, SB 3-bets, BB folds, Hero calls, UTG+2 folds, MP2 caps, SB calls, Hero calls.

River: (19.50 BB) 6s (3 players)
SB bets, Hero folds, MP2 raises, SB 3-bets, MP2 caps, SB calls.

Results:
SB has Jh Qc (straight, queen high).
MP2 has Js Qs (straight, queen high).
Outcome: MP2 wins 13.75 BB. SB wins 13.75 BB.


All is good until the turn. I decide to call the flop rather than raise with 5 players in, hoping to make my draw and then get paid off by at least one player. My first turn call gives me 6.5-1 on a 4.5-1 flush draw. In all honesty I couldn't think fast enough to work out whether the second call was good, so I hoped it would be profitable with implied odds, if not immediately. I was calling 2 big bets to win 13.5 - plenty for my draw still. If it's capped behind me (which it was, and which I should expect to happen quite often in this spot) it becomes 3BB to win 17.5. OK that still sounds good. All in all on the turn I paid 4 BBs for a shot at a 19.5 BB pot, which was just enough to make the flush draw profitable. The call was OK, I just didn't know it at the time!


Hand 3:

PokerRoom 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Jh, 3d.
8 folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (2 SB) 2c, Qs, Js (2 players)
SB bets, BB raises, SB calls.

Turn: (3 BB) 9d (2 players)
SB checks, BB bets, SB calls.

River: (5 BB) 2d (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

Results:
SB has Qc Ts (two pair, queens and twos).
Hero has Jh 3d (two pair, jacks and twos).
Outcome: SB wins 5 BB.


I don't really know what to make of this because my blind play sucks. Right now I think I played it OK, it's just one of those horrible SB vs BB situations where it looks like you probably got lucky but didn't. I could check the turn but the signs are that I'm probably good so betting is best. Then after he calls the flop raise and turn bet, I figure a river bet will only be called by a hand that beats me, and I probably can't get a better hand to fold. If only they let you chop the blinds...

I am such a big shot!

Four days since my last blog post.  If anyone actually read this they might have missed me...

I don't know the result of the Pittsburgh game yet so please don't tell me.  It's waiting for me on Sky+ and I've seen about half of the first quarter.  Nobody has scored yet.  However I did get an email from Mansion - as yet unopened - with the subject "Your MANSION NFL Winnings".  Which kind of implies that the Steelers nailed it.  I'm trying to pretend that it could still go either way.  I realy don't like sportsbooks that send you an email when you win and give the game away, and considering they're risking $5.5m on this promotion (it was capped at 5000 bets x $1100 refund) they might consider asking their customers in a timezone where the game starts at 2am if they'd actually like to watch the game before they see the result.

I've been in London for a couple of days this week.  Played Wednesday night at Gutshot (£30 + 1 rebuy) and I got lucky at the right times and made it to the final table and finished 7th for £155.  I played this tournament once before and don't remember it being quite so shooty, but it was a complete gamble.  With 25 left it looked like I was one of the top stacks with 24k but blinds of 1k/2k meant this was almost irrelevant.  Twelve big blinds was the most I'd had for about 2 hours, and I'd kept up with the pack pretty well.  I'd got to that giddy height after raising from the button with QQ.  The big blind called and we both checked the AQx flop.  He couldn't resist moving in on the turn with king high to try and push me off my supposed button steal.  I lost with JJ against AK, calling all in for 9000 more on top of my big blind of 4000.  I thought for a moment about playing chicken, and waiting for two short stacks forced all in before the blinds came round to me again to get eliminated to try to lock in another £50, but did the right thing in the end.

Realised I can't play the EPT Dublin satellite tomorrow so I've taken the W$ and will try again next week, or maybe look at a WCOOP event.  We're going to see some friends who we haven't seen since before they had their baby.  Years ago.  Probably turn up and find them with a teenager.

The award for best sports betting promotion ever goes to Mansion, who have set up this little gem for the start of the NFL season.

Place a bet of $1100 on Pittsburgh to beat Miami on Thursday and they will refund your stake if you don't win.

You can't bet less than $1100, and if you bet any more the maximum refund is still $1100.  And you have to back the Steelers.  But if you can bankroll this bet a, it has a huge risk free return.  The bet you have to make is a point spread handicap at -110, therefore paying $1000 for the $1100 wager.  That's a free shot at a grand.  Or, as I've done, you can hedge it (as long as you use a different site) and lock in nearly $500 profit guaranteed!

The point spread was actually zero when I placed the bet, so I backed PIT with $1100 to win $1000 and then hedged betting MIA using their promotional -107 line at CanBet, risking $535 to win $500.  Except really there's no risk:

If PIT win, I win $1000 and lose $535, net profit $465.

If MIA win, I win $500 but do not lose on the other bet.

So I guess I'll be cheering for Miami on Thursday, to try to win the extra $35.  That's about as much as I'd normally put on a game...!