Online Poker

I can't believe i haven't realised until today just how much added value there is in the PokerDome satellites.  I've only made it to the main satellite once, mostly because I regularly manage to forget that the $20 freezeout qualifier starts at 8.15pm.  They're not bad themselves, often a small overlay to make up the two guaranteed seats into the next round.

Today I was thinking about buying in direct, simply because the package on offer was for the tournament taking place whilst we are in Vegas at Christmas. Then, true to form, I managed to miss the start and I kicked myself harder than usual after I noticed just how juicy this satellite was.  They guarantee two seats for Vegas - kind of essential to make sure the TV show goes ahead.  What I didn't realise, and perhaps I just wasn't paying close enough attention or maybe they just don't a big enough deal about it, is that one seat is added to the prize pool and as far as I can tell it's added regardless of the actual entries.  This week there were 69 players, paying $200 each.  That's $13800 in the prize pool, which would be just shy of funding the two $7000 seat prizes.  But rather than just add $200 to make it up, there was in fact $6800 up for grabs in consolation cash.

Not only that, but they paid the whole final table - 9 prizes from 69 runners is a little flatter than usual, and makes it just that little bit more appealing for a tournament that's not exactly within my bankroll.  A $200 online tournament is definitely out of my comfort zone to buy in direct.  I even get cold feet when it comes to using PokerStars T$ or W$ for the actual events I've qualified for! But when you're actually getting, effectively, $300 worth of seat for $200 I'm going to find this hard to resist!

Of course, if I can actually remember the satellites this week it won't be an issue..

Here's a hand from a PokerDome satellite I played today.

Blinds are 75/150 and I have 2250.  I am dealt Ah Ad on the button.  Lovely.  A middle position player who has about twice as many chips as me raises to 300.  A fantastic minimum raise.  I strongly suspect he doesn't have aces here, and if he does well that's just the way cards are falling for me lately.

I reraise, making it 900 to go.  If he'd made a proper raise I could think about smooth calling here in position, but I can't let the blinds see a cheap flop.  So far so good I think.

He makes the call and I see a horrible flop: Jh Qd Kc.

The only good thing I can say about this flop is that it's unsuited.  It's still about the worst flop ever for pocket aces in a pot that saw two raises pre-flop.  All those big pairs that you had crushed have suddenly caught up.  I figure two Kings would want to apply more pressure pre-flop, but can't count on it.  Two Jacks could get away from this but, in the hands of a big stack, could very likely wait for a low board before hanging themselves.

There are also legitimate two-pair threats, and I haven't been paying enough attention to know whether this guy would call a reraise with KQ, KJ or QJ out of position.  You'd hope not.  Of course, what I'm really hoping for is to run into AK here, but there's only two aces and three kings left.  It's unlikely.

There's even the possibility of a maniac with KT who is not going to go anywhere, and would be just about correct to call for pot odds if I move all in.  I'd still be a 2-1 favourite, but I wouldn't like it.  TT would have a hard time folding here too, figuring he may have 10 outs, when in fact a ten is no help and two of his straight cards are in my hand.  Of all the likely hands that just got much stronger, TT is probably the least dangerous.  But you're still going home against it one time in four.

The stacks are nowhere near deep enough to have any chance of finding out where I stand.  And not only is the other guy wearing shades, he's also playing on the Internet - no tells here.  I have one pot-sized bet left in me, which I think is probably going in the middle whatever happens.  So I've decided I'm not folding.  I mean, really, how can I?

Villian checks the scary flop.  Doesn't matter.  He checks if he's strong.  He checks if he's as scared as I am.  There's no more information to be had.

Now here's the reason I'm posting this hand.  I've don't ever remember being in this situation before, and if I have been I certainly didn't think about it this way.  I'm in position, with a hand that could very well not be best any more but unable to find a way to fold.  I check, and check with a reason.  I'm ever so briefly a little bit smug.  If I'm beat I'm beat.  I'm losing my stack.  If I'm winning and I move all in here, he's going to be able to fold anything I beat, except maybe AK.  He's not folding anything that beats me, but will also be hating that board with any strong hand.  By checking I bring on a free card that probably won't matter, and encourage him to bet the turn.  Which he will now probably do with any hand that pisses on mine, but me may also take the opportunity to push with that AK, which suddenly looks more attractive, or bluff with an underpair or a straight draw, or perhaps AQ or AJ.

I'm not saying this thinking is perfect.  It probably isn't.  I need to find a way to get away from my aces if they're no good, and maybe I could have controlled the pot size pre-flop better in order to be able to do that now.  I'm also not saying that I put him on a hand I beat and checked to induce a bluff.  That's not possible here.  All I can do is make sure that I get as many chips in the middle the times I'm actually ahead as I do the times when I'm toast.

It's the wrong decision.  He moves all in on the turn (couldn't be more of a brick: 2s) and I call.  He flips KQo, I hit a second deuce on the river and survive.  I eventually bubbled.

I'm going to be thinking about this one for a while.  It's a peculiar decision with a reason that's based on a negative attitude.  The decision is not that unusual really.  It's easy to check there out of fear, just as it's easy to shove your chips in out of panic.

I don't ever recall being in such a horrible situation and having a clear plan.  Now I just have to figure out whether the plan was any good.  Feel free to chime in anytime.

So I thought I'd cracked it.  Felt pretty good about my limit game over a reasonable number of hands.  Then I went back to PokerStars, where in the past I'd been getting well and truely thrashed at this level, and it carried on looking good for a while.  Two bonuses cleared and over $300 up on top.  Now it's all gone again.

My graph of the last 7000 hands (actually this includes some $1/$2 and $3/$6 too) makes me look pretty much like a break-even player with one very big rush, followed by an ice cold streak.  Really, that's a performance I should be happy with, considering how well I used to do on Stars - definitely shows improvement.  But it's inside my head again now: how can I tell whether I really suck at limit?

I've been here before.  The question is not whether I believe it when I tell myself these swings are to be expected, but whether I should believe it.  Sure, I've hit a bad streak.  It's only a 100 big bet downswing which is not that unusual.  Or so you hear - I think I believe this now.  I did go through an extremely cynical phase of thinking the explanation of big losing streaks was simply misinformation spread by writers and professionals, probably aided by the card rooms themselves.  All of the above have a vested interest in keeping bums on virtual seats.

But how long do you keep going before you work out whether it's just a run bad luck, or if you actually have a leak that needs to be plugged.  Blaming the maths could be a great way to convince myself I'm really great, but consistently unlucky.  Ruin then awaits.

If I'm going to live by the stats, Poker Tracker tells me that I'm not awful.  A little too tight still maybe, but not awful.  I'm sitting even after paying $300 in rake for those 7000 hands - winning about one big bet every 100 hands from players and giving it straight back to the house.  If you should only expect to make 2BB/100 then I'm one-third of the way there.

Also I appear to be bitching about breaking even, which really is not an event worth writing, and just a little greedy.  Sorry about that.  At least for now I'm even, although my confidence has taken a beating.  What I need is a goal to prove or deny my greatness.  The rate I'm playing, I should easily get 20,000 hands in this month, if not more.  I'm going to stick with PokerStars until that milestone and then take stock again.  Hopefully things will be clearer by then, but if it's still the same story I really don't know what I'll do!

There's no bonus to clear, but I should hit PlatinumStar level and clock up at least a hundred quid's worth of Amazon vouchers so even if its inconclusive I'll get some free shit.