The Lucky Donut

When room offers go good

nospam@example.com (luckydonut) — 2008-05-15T09:01:02Z

I haven't quite figured out which tournaments I'm going to play on my next gambling trip, but I have sorted out all my accomodation - without it costing a penny.

Three nights in Laughlin, Friday to Sunday, were included with the poker tournament package, so I just needed two weekights on either side in Las Vegas.

I've booked Imperial Palace for my last two nights. I was sorely tempted to try their Luv Tub room, but I've passed this time. It seemed a little sad, and perhaps a little creepy, to chose a room with an oversized bathtub and mirrored ceiling when I'm travelling by myself.

IP usually shows a comp on any weeknight. The funny thing is that the comp is for a Deluxe room (usual rate: $59) whereas the cheaper Classic and Capri rooms (usual rate: $49) are listed at full price when I'm logged in. Are they really so bad that they wouldn't want to let a VIP player book one by accident?

My first two nights managed to throw up a two night complimentary stay at the Rio, which is awesome. I thought it was amazing enough that I was offered these for the very quiet time before Christmas (the listed room rate for most that period is just $70) nevermind while the World Series of Poker is in the house.

I already know I'm not going to play in any bracelet events, but living that close to the action I'll almost certainly poke my head in and check out the side action.

So, it seems that the decision on January 1st to pump $30k through a video poker machine to get Diamond status was worth it, even if it did take a little more action in March to trigger the Las Vegas room offers.

In fact, it's been very much worth it. For this trip alone, those rooms would normally cost $539 ($220 for Rio, $119 for Imperial Palace and somehow a total $200 for Laughlin, which is a bit OTT when you can easily get rooms elsewhere in town for $19/night). Of course I'd never pay that much when all I need is a place to put my head at night, but it's definitely worth something.

Add to this the room in Laughlin in March, some bookings I've made for the summer in Laughlin and San Diego as well as three nights in the Flamingo (which I won't use except to steal the soap, but the reservation qualifies me to play in a blackjack tournament) and the bargain five nights at the Rio for $50 at Christmas, and already I make that nearly $1,700 of room value.

To get there, Claire and I have gambled a fair bit to be sure. Nearly $40,000 in total action, but with an expected loss of just $240 (and an actual win, so far, of $62 - the downswing is on the way!) and about $150 of that back in food comp, I've made worse investments.

How much is too much?

nospam@example.com (luckydonut) — 2008-05-13T22:33:00Z

This year it looks like I'm trying to prove whether it is actually possible to have too much of a good thing.

The trip to Las Vegas and Laughlin I just booked for June really isn't necessary. We just came back at the start of April, and it's less than ten weeks until the summer trip. So adding another week to the time I'll be spending in Nevada this year is somewhat excessive.

It all started when I got this offer in the mail from Harrah's Laughlin.

I completely disregarded it at first, along with a handful of other mailers they sent me that I figured I'd never use: two tickets to see Boz Scaggs in concert on May 17th; an invitation to a Golf Weekend May 23rd-25th; a Blues Brothers tribute show on 14th June. This one - a free World Series of Poker satellite tournament - falls on the weekend of June 6th-9th.

Put them all together and that's four offers in four weeks. I'm about due another batch of American mail (it's forwarded from my California mailing address every 3-4 weeks) so I'll should soon get an idea of whether they have some kind of offer every single weekend, or if most Laughlin players had been waiting months for something, and then four came along at once.

As silly as it seems to fly half way across the world for the sake of a freeroll, I just kept on thinking of too many good reasons to be able to say no to this.

The value of the tournament is unknown, but it could be pretty good. It's a $25,000 prize pool with a $6,000 bonus drawing, so if they get 100 runners that's a $310 entry for each one.

When I booked it, they told me 400 rooms were reserved for the promo so there could be 400 players, which would clearly be much worse but unless I'm being extremely naive I can't see that happening. This can't be taking place in the poker room (it has a total of 8 tables) it'll be out of the way in some meeting space, but even so it's taking place during the WSOP and on a weekend. Will they really ship in dozens of dealers from Las Vegas for a freeroll when they could be dealing tournaments or side games at the Rio?

However the major factor that got me considering this silly plan was my frequent flyer miles situation. Yes, it's a serious concern! With my bargain business class flights coming up in July and returning in August, I was set to reach gold status on the return trip but taking this trip in June means I'll actually make that status on the outbound jouney instead.

The big deal with this is that I've decided to try to retain gold status for the next ten years (which awards lifetime membership) and having the new status begin in July rather than August will make it much easier because of when our travel dates (determined by Claire's school holidays) are likely to fall the next few years. Sounds like a feeble excuse, I'm sure, but I've worked it all out and it does make a lot of sense to take one extra flight now to make sure the trips we'll take regularly will be enough to re-qualify me for gold each year.

By the same logic, it's actually going to be a easier for Claire to retain her own gold status if we take another trip in before Christmas, but the jury is still out on that one. I'm rooting for Atlantic City in October, but I know that it's a long shot.

Every set of dates I looked at came up with a US Airways flight that was much cheaper than any other airline (it cost £368 in the end, making me remember just how much we get shafted having to travel in school holidays). US Air awards miles in the BMI Diamond Club so it was a perfect fit.

Additionally, the miles I'll earn from this flight, and by getting the status upgrade early, are worth about £180 - that's half the cost of the flight back!

I can also use this trip to get some extra play time at Harrah's Laughlin to get a head start on retaining Total Rewards Diamond status for next year. It'll definitely help take the pressure off for the summer if I can get a few thousand tier credits racked up on the almost-positive video poker machine there.

The final justification to myself was that I had been thinking about going to Bristol for the Gala Tour later in June, which would have been an £880 buy in for 3 events, plus a fair chunk of cash to stay down there. Accomodation is included with the Laughlin offer, and I have plenty of comps to be able to stay in Las Vegas without paying a penny the other nights, so in fact there's not that much much in it overall. Could I get to Bristol and stay there for four nights and get much change from £200? I doubt it.

I'm not particularly bothered about playing a World Series event (the choice would be $2,000 No Limit, $1,500 six-handed or $1,500 shootout) but there are several other tournament series in town at the same time. Golden Nugget, Binions, Caesars and Venetian all have their own tournaments in the $200-$500 range.

Once I've decided what I'll actually play, I'll probably be selling pieces of myself again. If you fancy a solid, just-about-break-even investment, stay tuned.

By the way, I'm not knocking Bristol - I've never been, would quite like to, and was actually going to go there using my Virgin Traveller ticket until they lost the West Coast franchise - but it's no contest when I can get to Vegas almost as easily. OK, it takes about 12 hours longer, but I'll just about live with that...

This is Vegas

nospam@example.com (luckydonut) — 2008-05-12T10:03:00Z

I'd seen plenty of screenshots, which in themselves were enough to get me very excited, but only just discovered this gameplay movie of the forthcoming video game This Is Vegas.

http://www.videogamer.com/xbox360/this_is_vegas/screenshots.html

I thought I'd be more interested in being able to drive around a neon-lit virtual world of fake casinos than the clubbing elements, but the dancing missions do look pretty special. I particularly like the way the character's walk changes the minute he sets foot on the dancefloor.

If it's possible to connect a dance mat controller, this definitely has the potential to be the best game ever.

Time is money

nospam@example.com (luckydonut) — 2008-05-07T10:38:00Z

Harrah's are labelling their decision to delay the final table of the World Series of Poker Main Event until November an "enhancement". From a player's point of view I really can't see why it's a good thing.

Taking a day or two off in the middle of a marathon tournament is one thing. Indeed, if you are drawn to play on Day 1A you already have to take a 4-day forced break before day 2A begins, then everyone gets at least a day off before all the players merges into a single Day 3. Another day off before the final table after 6 long days of poker is probably a welcome break. But a four month hiatus once the end of the road is in sight - and when you must be In The Zone to have got that far - is just a bit of a nonsense.

The point has been made that you could use this time to get some coaching and study the play of your opponents, but how exactly are you going to study the play of the eight other unknowns who haven't played a single hand on TV yet. That's actually the whole point of this stupid rearrangement - to accomodate ESPN. Are they really going to give the players a few hundred hours of unedited tape to wade through? I doubt it.

What I really wanted to know though was just how much the players might be losing in potential interest on their payouts as a result of having to wait nearly four months between Day 7 and Day 8. This is the richest "sporting" event in the world, after all, and the prize pool is pretty hefty.

I'm going to base the calculations on last year's field, because that means the full payout information is readily available and there's no reason to assume there will be wildly different numbers this year.

In 2007 there were 6,358 entrants, each paying $10,000 to play. There's a total 6% taken from the prize pool for the house and tournament staff which, accoording to my calculator, is about twenty grand more than the $59,784,954 prize pool published. I have no idea how this number could end in anything other than two zeros. It's must be just good old-fashioned skimming.

Just over a third of the total prize pool is given to the top 9 spots - $22,019,901 in total.

This year, once the final table has been determined, each of the remaining players will be given 9th place money straight away and when they return in November they'll be playing for the difference. 9th place last year was worth $525,934, so, based on last year's numbers, that would be a further $4,733,406 paid out in July.

Therefore the amount of the prize pool left unpaid during the hiatus is $17,286,495. A cool seventeen million - or about $1.9m per player - still to play for.

The interest rates for savings on the US Dollar are far from great at the moment. However, after a quick shop around the net I found a certificate of deposit product that offers 3.3% APY, but over a four month fixed term. That's almost a perfect example - the delay before the final table is 117 days.

I just plugged these numbers into an online interest rate calculator and the answer comes in at round about $180,000.

That's 18 Main Event buy-ins. Or, it's twice as much as the nine remaining players will have paid for their seats in the first place. Although it pales in comparison to the $3.8m total rake taken out of the prize pool for this tournament, $180,000 is hardly insignficant.

Quite what it's worth to Harrah's for hanging on to it for the same amount of time I couldn't really say. $17m is probably just a drop in the ocean to the world's largest gaming corporation, but nevertheless it's money that doesn't belong to them, yet they know that they will have custody of it for a fixed - and reasonably long - period of time. It's certainly investable, one way or another.

Suddenly the offer of an all expenses paid trip for two for each of the finalists to return to Las Vegas in November to play out the end of the Main Event doesn't seem quite quite as generous. Even I can get a free suite at the Rio!

Happy donut day to me

nospam@example.com (luckydonut) — 2008-05-03T22:46:00Z

Even though Krispy Kreme's invasion of the UK is well underway with about 40 proper stores - and a number of Tesco supermarkets also stocking their products - it's all down South still. There's just four stores North of Oxford.

So today we drove to Manchester to buy donuts. Well, it is my birthday.

I know for a fact I didn't ask for the two chocolate ring donuts, I think we missed out on glazed lemon filled at the expense of those, but it doesn't really matter. They're all good.

I've learned that the Krispy Kreme at Trafford Park is open as a drive thru until 2am some nights, and they bake fresh until 11pm every day. This is the actual definition of temptation.

The question of whether a 90-mile round trip is far enough to put me off returning without any other reason for being in Manchester has yet to be answered.

Next stop: Blue Man Group

nospam@example.com (luckydonut) — 2008-05-01T21:58:00Z

A month ago, I started playing the drums.

OK, that's a bit of a romanticisation. What I actually mean is I started playing the drum part on the video game Rock Band.

Still, they reckon that if you can master the songs on "expert" level, you could sit down at a real drum kit, make the same movements and you'd be actually playing that song.

I'm sure that if real drum kits only had four things to hit, all of them being the same shape and each one always making the right sound at the correct volume no matter where or how hard you hit it, and with a couple of them doubling up as tom-toms and cymbals, then this would be true.

However, for someone of my limited co-ordination - and having never picked up a pair of drumsticks in my life before - I consider it something of an achievement that I got my first 100% score on hard level today.

The photo is horrible, sorry - I only had my phone to hand. It just about shows Claire getting 99% on guitar (apparently just one silly mistake away from perfection, she's done it 100% before) and my massive 100% with a 1016 note streak, both playing hard level on The Clash's "Should I Stay or Should I Go". I will almost certainly make the effort to fetch a proper camera the first time we both nail it at the same time.

That has happened before, but only on medium difficulty (Pixies "Wave of Mutilation" is pretty straightforward for both parts) and we've already gained as many virtual fans in the "world tour" mode as we can without moving up to hard level.

I'm not unhappy at acing The Clash, but I actually wanted my first 100% song to be Weezer's "Buddy Holly" so I had an excuse to embed that video rather than just link to it. Or Nine Inch Nails, because that sounds like it should be a lot harder than it actually is. I've been very close on both.

Or for bonus cheese points, it could have been The B-52s "Roam". I don't care what you think, it's great fun to play and I already had a 1600+ note streak and came within one brain fart of doing it perfectly!

So, for the next step in my drumming career, I need to decide which route to take. Should I aspire to be as great as this guy, who owns every song on expert level, and has made many top quality videos to prove it?

Yes, he has socks strapped to the drum pads. This is strangely appealing. The only modification I have is a set of Hard Rock logo drumsticks painted with a flame pattern.

Or, should I paint my face blue and start hitting other things? How would that be for a career change?

There's already an official "stage kit" with lights and a smoke machine due out this summer, but I haven't heard anything about a paint drumming kit yet. It's inevitable though, I'm sure.

Ooooh hokey pokey cokey

nospam@example.com (luckydonut) — 2008-04-24T08:38:00Z

Apparently Neteller think I'm a VIP. Not really sure how that happened, although I did notice that I now have more than a million Netpoints. They're probably worth about a buck fifty.

All you can do with Neteller's loyalty points is use them to enter a prize draw that typically has thousands of entries, and although I've no reason to doubt the integrity of the draw this just seems like it would be pouring my points down the drain. I'd rather have the impressive seven-figure balance, thanks. Maybe they'll even let me buy a t-shirt with them one day too.

But this VIP promotion which I had in my email is very, very juicy:

It's taken a while to get my head around what I actually have to do to get some free money here. I wrote to ask them to explain exactly how the calculations had been done, because whichever way I looked at my statement I couldn't see how on earth they had worked out such a high six-weekly average. My total transactions since the start of the year are only slightly more than that!

They replied:

The six week average was calculated by taking the average of your weekly transactions between January 1 2008 and March 31 2008. Only weeks that you had at least one accepted transfer to a merchant were used in calculating your average. The weekly average was then multiplied by six to give a total average for six weeks (because the offer period is six weeks long we had to calculate your original average over the same time period).
The VIP bonus offer is based on your total transfers to merchants between April 20 2008 and May 31 2008,only transfers to merchants will be included in calculating your bonus (only funds that you send to merchants).

So it sounds like they've inflated the six-weekly average by ignoring weeks where I had no activity. It doesn't really matter though. They've said that this offer is based on precisely my next six weeks of activity - no further calculations required - and because they've told me what my target amount is, I can make sure I achieve - and surpass - it.

Basically, Neteller is going to pay back a percentage of their fees to users who exceed the target level of transactions. Using Neteller to transfer money in and out of gaming sites costs the player nothing - instead Neteller charges transactions fees to the merchants.

They charge 3.9% on deposits (the same that you pay as a user for a person-to-person transfer) and 2.0% on withdrawals. Getting back 1.5% of your total deposits amounts to nearly 25% "fee-back", however because you never actually pay those fees yourself, it's just free money.

It's Neteller that's the real winner of course - they just want to grab as much in transaction fees as possible - but it's a no-lose proposition for the player. It'll be the casinos and poker rooms that get hit who pay for it.

Just think about the numbers. I've started off abusing this promotion with a $1,000 deposit into UltimateBet, who were offering a 20% (max $200) deposit bonus today. I already had more than $500 in bonus dollars sitting in my account that I've never had the inclination to play for. Apart from a few satellites and the odd game of roshambo, I never play there. Hopefully, depositing in response to an email promotion should make my deposit look a little less out-of-character than it really is.

This deposit cost UB $39, and I intend to cash it out as soon as possible which will cost them another $20. This is one of the fussier sites in terms of getting your money back because you have to be seen to play some poker before a withdrawal is authorised. Still, there's no way I'm going to generate $59 in rake before getting my money back.

Clearly, the optimal strategy is to cycle as much money as you can get your hands on as often as possible. I don't think it's worth adding money to my Neteller bankroll just for this - you have to pay fees to deposit and then again to withdraw that will reduce the value of the promotion considerably - but certainly for the next six weeks my entire bankroll is going to be in play. In, out, in, out, play a few hands, do the hokey pokey cokey and turn it around.

That's what it's all about - easy, risk free money.

I used to cycle funds like this at Party Poker all the time. In the good old days, you could earn 1000 bonus PartyPoints just for making a deposit of $500 and not withdrawing it for a week. This was way out of proportion to the number of points you'd earn from actually playing as a casual player (if I remember right, 20 raked hands earned 5 points) so this is the only reason I have so much Party gear. At 2000 points for a polo shirt, you could order one for free after every two deposits you made - without playing a single hand of poker!

I've also been looking for a way to cycle money on a credit card that awards frequent flyer miles, worth about 3p per £1 spent. The dream is to use up my entire credit limit every month, then settle the card immediately, rinse and repeat. Unfortunately, unless it's genuine spending this is pretty difficult. I've looked into laundering through online gambling sites but it doesn't work - you have to pay a cash advance fee on the deposits which costs more than the benefits you get from spending on the card.

No such problem with Neteller though, it's just money transfers and it costs me nothing. As long as it's a casino or poker site that accepts payment directly in US Dollars, and I'm confident that I'll get my money back pretty quickly then it's fair game. Even the Cryptologic cashiers that charge $1 for a withdrawal are profitable plays!

After I meet the $2,530 target, which won't take long, every $1,000 I can shift is going to earn me $15. Doesn't sound like much, but don't underestimate how often I'll be trying this - I've got six weeks after all!

8th donut from the sun

nospam@example.com (luckydonut) — 2008-04-17T22:10:00Z

I thought it would be virtually impossible to reach a prize-worthy position in any of the new PokerStars Battle of the Planets sit-and-go leaderboards playing only single table tournaments, but obviously I just forgot how great I am.

Seriously though, look at this unbelievable run of results I needed to even get up to 8th place: 7 x 1st, 5 x 2nd and 3 x 3rd.

That's 15 in-the-money finishes out of 20 tournaments. Call it a game of skill if you like, but that kind of form takes more than a little luck.

You can see from my profit graph that I've never had a streak quite like it before. Isn't it pretty?

I know there's bound to be an almighty downswing waiting around the corner, but I can brag while it's going well can't I?

Each Battle of the Planets league ends on Saturday night and resets on Sunday morning so there's still two full days of play left and my position certainly isn't safe. 504 points was enough for both 7th and 8th place last week, but right now 8th place is the best I can possibly get with that score.

If I manage to stay in to the top ten, I'll win some cash (it's $80 for 8th) and a ticket to the monthly $50,000 freeroll. It's a triple shootout format (729 players max) but with eight different leagues, two "orbits" in each and ten players winning a ticket each week, in a four-week month that's 640 tickets given away for the tournament. Some players will win two tickets and some winners won't turn up so the value of the freeroll ticket must be at least $100.

If I don't hang on to the giddy heights of top ten stardom, there's still some prize money for finishing in the top 30. I should have a pretty good shot at that at least.

I realised - completely by accident when I happened to load the right number of tournament summaries into Poker Tracker at the right time - that I'd recently reached $10,000 spent on these turbo SNG entries. I only mention it because that same money (if I actually had it all in the same place at the same time) would get me one World Series of Poker Main Event entry.

Doing things this way involves a little less variance, though. Sure, I'm not going to win ten million but I'm also not going to lose ten grand all to one suckout. It'd take 625 different suckouts.

Here's the magic stats:

I still can't believe that this is close to being a reliable sample size. My last eight results alone (1st, 1st, 2nd, 4th, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 1st) pushed the overall ROI up from the 16.6% shown here to 18.4%. Maybe when I've played a few thousand I'll have a little more confidence in the numbers.

EDIT: 5 hours to go and I'm 10th. Gonna be close.

EDIT: Sodding eleventh. A big fuck you to "$tr8t Hu$tla" who not only has a shit screen name, he also waited until the very last minute to score 521 points. I hope I get the chance to bust you soon!

Not the eight o'clock tournament

nospam@example.com (luckydonut) — 2008-04-16T17:57:00Z

As the Gutshot poker club no longer exists, while I was staying in London for work earlier in the week I headed down to the Powerhouse Sporting Club to enjoy their coffee bar and see if I could get a game of Jenga or Connect 4.

As it happened, there was a poker game about to start but of course it was definitely not for money. I did not pay £50 to enter, and there was no additional £5 bounty.

There was also definitely not any pressure for players to leave a voluntary donation. I did not buy in with three £20s, so obviously they did not not offer me any change.

53 players turned up to enjoy only the thrill of the competition and to battle it out for no more than bragging rights. It's a game of skill... yada yada yada.

We started with 3500 chips and I picked up pocket aces on the second hand. Blinds were 25/50 and an early position player raised to 225. His neighbour called and I was next, making it 800 to go.

The player to my left called in a flash and it got folded round to the early raiser.

"How much to me?", he said. "Five... what.... six...? fift...? seventy five?". He figured it out eventually and made the call, but not before proving what I'd always suspected: a raise to a "normal" amount plus one small chip has nothing to do with any strategy, it's just so you get to see two different pretty colours tumbling through the air when you make your bet. Wheeee.

I expected to see this player make a three-chip flop bet and show us all that he could count to 625, but in fact he checked, as did I and the third player. The flop was a king and a ten and a seven, all different suits and I didn't want to get too excited with one pair so early on. In truth, I wasn't really ready to deal with a tough decision yet.

The turn brought another ten - now I had two pair, for what that's worth - and the first player bet 250. With all that pre-flop action, the pot stood at 2475 so it may as well have been a check. I raised to 800, again a tiny bet in relation to the pot, but I hoped it might buy me a little information - or a free showdown - while still keeping the pot quite small. This line is either genius or ultra-weak, I'll let you decide.

I didn't have a great handle on the situation, but I figured that if a player who had only called my re-raise out of position pre-flop now decided to 3-bet on a king-high board, pocket aces were almost certainly not good and I would be able to fold and still have more than half a starting stack to play with.

However, if the third player decided to stick around (he'd already called two raises cold pre-flop, why not call a bet and a raise again now?) I was going to be completely stumped. I was very glad indeed when he folded.

In for two fiddy, in for eight hundy, the other guy called and we went to the river heads up. I don't remember what card it was. I didn't look until he'd checked, and I already knew I was checking behind anyway unless it was another ace. I flipped up the aces and he slid his hand into the muck.

"I had pocket nines", he said. And now, the punchline: "I put you on ace-queen".

That was as interesting as it got though, I hardly saw another hand worth playing before I ended up flipping a little pair against two big cards and losing.

I took a nice long walk back to my hotel, thinking about what I could have not won.

G-Force

nospam@example.com (luckydonut) — 2008-04-13T12:54:00Z

A week ago, Poker Stars launched their "Battle of the Planets" leaderboard week for sit-and-go tournaments. You get points whenever you finish in the money, then your best blocks of 20 results (the "low orbit") or 100 results (the "high orbit") determine your league position.

As I happened to be playing quite a few SNGs at the moment anyway, it's looked to be a nice free shot at some extra money.

My first set of results is now in: not even close.

The likely difficulty for single table sit-and-go players like myself is that although the leagues are divided by entry fee you also have to compete against players in the 18-man and 27-man tournaments, and they receive nearly twice as many points for a first place finish as you do for winning a 9-man SNG.

Of course, whatever you play it would take a pretty insane run of luck to win one of these things, but five or six first places in 3-table tournaments from a block of 20 seems much more achievable than ten or eleven single table victories in the same period - that would be first place at least every other game - to get the same number of points.

ryan422323, this week's winner in the "Earth - low orbit" (blocks of 20 for $10-$19 tournaments - the level I'm playing at), looks like a losing player who suddenly got lucky at the right time. It happens.

As expected, Sharkscope reveals his most recent results are from a mixture of 18-, 27- and 45-man sit and go tournaments (although the 45-man results don't count for this leaderboard - that's apparently enough players to be considered a real tournament).

Second place finisher jellycz has had a rather better tournament career, with Sharkscope showing a long term return on investment of 19% across his PokerStars tournaments.

Still, he would have had to do much better than that over the block of 20 that counted towards his leaderboard position.

In fact we can work out just what kind of return is needed to win the Battle of the Planets from the final points totals.

Regardless of the buy-in, the points you receive are based on the prize distribution rather than the actual dollar amounts won. The number of points is the same as the prize money would be for a $10 buy-in. For example, first place in a 9-man SNG gets 45 points - although you actually win $67.50 for a $15+1 stake or $112.50 for a $25+2, the prize is always 4.5x your stake. First place in a 27-man SNG wins 8x the stake, so you receive 80 points.

So, with 637 points the winner would have received $637 in real money if he had played 20 sit-and-go tournaments that cost $10 each. That's an amazing 219% ROI! Second place with 552 points is still-insane 176% ROI.

My hottest block landed me 369 points, with 11 in-the-money finishes out of 20 (5 x 1st, 4 x 2nd, 2 x 3rd). That's a fiendishly good 85% ROI, and I finished 256th.

Joseph and the amazing technicolour check-raise

nospam@example.com (luckydonut) — 2008-04-12T22:09:00Z

The Rt Hon Lord Andrew Lloyd Webber, spotted this evening on BBC television wearing a Party Poker shirt.

OK, it's actually a Leyton Orient football strip so it probably doesn't count. But I did get a bit excited for a moment and think that maybe he'd bought it using his PartyPoints.

What a difference some play makes

nospam@example.com (luckydonut) — 2008-04-11T01:24:00Z

Harrah's love me now, it's official.

So I moaned a bit before about not having any good offers since I got Diamond, and they said it was because I hadn't actually played on any of the shitty games they had in Las Vegas.

Fine, I thought, let's give them some action and see what happens.

Claire and I spent not much more than an hour pumping money through the best video poker games we could find at Harrah's Las Vegas. Tucked away in a bank of multi-line games there was one multi-line machine with 5c 10-play 9/5 Jacks or Better (98.5%) and the next best was 7/5 Bonus Poker (98.0%) at 25c. Definitely not great, but the best of a bad bunch.

Between us, we racked up 355 base reward credits on my card which means we must have played $3550 in total. If you reckon on a 2% house edge on those games, the overall expected loss is $71. In fact we won a bit on the day because Claire of course hit about 25 royal flushes.

That expected loss number is not quite as bad as it sounds. We also got a combined 606 bonus reward credits (how these are calculated at any given time is an official secret) taking the total for the day to 961, worth a whopping $9.61 in instant food comp almost anywhere at any of Harrah's casinos.

Except at Mon Ami Gabi. I found this out the hard way. You can't swipe your card there because it's not operated by the casino, although I asked at the players club about this later and apparently you can get a comp slip before you go to dinner if you care to guess roughly how much it's going to be. However, our fake French waiter (who actually sounded Italian) didn't think to even tell us this, he just shook his head at my Total Rewards card and we had to pay using real money.

I'd be annoyed about this if it didn't mean I still had enough comp on the card to have to go back there again in the summer and do it right. It was a fantastic steak with a fantastic view. I'm kicking myself for only taking a picture of the latter.

Anyway, it seems that $3550 of action in Las Vegas was enough to get me on the radar for room offers worth way more than $71.

Finally, the Imperial Palace is free! As well as a "Deluxe Room", sometimes their web site gives me the option to book a "Luv Tub" room (putting a Roman bath in the rooms in an Asian-themed hotel is obvious, no) completely free of charge, and for up to five nights!

That's pretty cool. The reservations site says "sold out" for every date I've tried if I'm not logged in so I don't know what they usually go for (they might even be restricted to players club bookings) but on the dates I can't get a comp the Luv Tub rates are about $60 more than a Deluxe room.

We don't need any hotel accomodation for the summer, but I might just book it anyway and take the little bottles of shampoo. Or if anyone out there is looking for a good deal and the dates are right, buy me a drink and I'll think about checking you in

There's also quite a few comps showing for me at Bally's, Flamingo and Harrah's and the odd night elsewhere, as well as reduced rates for all the other hotels.

The best bargain I found has to be four nights at the Rio at Christmas (the flights are already booked, need you ask) totally free. In fact, it was only $50 to add a 5th night so I splashed out and went for that too. If enough offers come along later to cover the rest of the trip, I expect I can always cancel that night anyway!

The best part is because every room in the Rio is a suite, I can finally boast about getting comped a suite in Vegas!

Don't send me back t'dark place

nospam@example.com (luckydonut) — 2008-04-09T14:13:00Z

This just in:

I used a few coupons at Circus Circus last month - a couple of table game match plays, $10 free slot play and a "get $15 in chips for $10" offer. All this combined with a free monster hot dog at Slots-a-Fun almost makes a trip down there worthwhile. Almost.

Circus Circus has a lot of haters, and after going back for the first time in a good few years I have to agree it absolutely deserves it. Something about the place just started to drain my life force the moment I walked through the door.

And that was well before I had to negotiate any over-excited families of nine, kids eating candyfloss, adults chewing toothpicks, on their way to the RV park. I can't explain exactly what the "vibe" was, but it definitely wasn't like you get at them regular casinos.

Maybe it was the promotional table game chips - you know it's a cheap-ass casino when they only have them in $1s. This deal was meant to come with a pack of win cards, but they'd run out (long ago, I imagine, judging by the 30-or-so years of grime on the chips themselves).

Or perhaps the blackjack table I sat at had something to do with it. It took the combined brain power of a dealer and a pit boss (and what was left of their life force) about ten minutes to figure out whether a coupon from their own "fun" book which said "good for any $1 side bet" could be used at their game.

The table had a side bet that cost $1. So, yes. It really wasn't worth holding the game up for.

Then one player asked the dealer, "do I hit that?" when he had a 16 and the dealer showed a ten. "Oh that's a tough one, it's really up to you". Great, it was well worth asking. Do you not know, or have you been told to help the player make mistakes?

I'm guessing she wasn't aware of all the hard work that lasvegasdealertips.com has been trying to do for dealerkind. "Your dealer will help you out because they like getting money" is the pretty much the message of that web site. In fact, Circus Circus dealers get the worst tips on the Strip, and it's not close.

Anyway, even with this $10 free slot play still to claim, I'm still not sure I'll be back in a hurry.

Walk this way

nospam@example.com (luckydonut) — 2008-04-08T21:01:00Z

I don't think there could have been a better time to decide to call it a night - and a trip - than after being dealt back-to-back pocket aces. I didn't make a fortune on them, but at least they held up.

The first time, I raised to $15 pre-flop after a couple of limpers and there was one caller who gave it up when I fired on a low, paired flop. Second time I got it all in against pocket kings, but he was short stacked, only sitting on about $50 at the start of the hand.

Even so, it was a three figure profit on the session and - as had been my M.O. that evening - I decided to quit with that profit as soon as the blinds came round again. I'd been there an hour and thought I would playing a bit later on my last night, but this was always going to be my last session of the trip and I'd already realised the table wasn't that good. In fact, the few times I've played at the MGM Grand before it's never really been a great game.

I'd begun the evening at Excalibur, winning about $100 in an hour and moving on to Luxor. There, it took more like 2.5 hours before I hit a monster hand: nines full of threes. Yes, I had pocket nines, I can't believe you would even ask.

I flopped top set, bet the flop and three of us saw the turn as it completed my boat. I checked and we saw a free river card which happily completed another player's straight and he thought it was good enough to go broke on. I'm sure I would have done too, but I was the one running good this time.

One of the reasons I like to take in a number of different poker rooms in one night is that I just love soaking up the atmosphere around Vegas. Strolling through casinos and between casinos, you get a chance to be around all the other action while you take a break from your own.

Starting at Excalibur I had options. You can walk right through to Luxor, and then through again to Mandalay Bay without even stepping outside (and if it's fresh air you're looking for, staying indoors is usualy the right choice in Las Vegas). There's a tram between those hotels, which I was going to use to get back if I went all the way, but for the time being I decided to take the walkway.

With half a dozen travelators to get you from E to L, it'd be just like an airport if it didn't connect a giant fairytale castle to an enormous black pyramid and just like an airport there are always people who just don't get the concept of a moving walkway.

In Vegas people must think that the 2mph conveyor belt ride is a free attraction, so it's only natural they would spread out to make themselves comfortable.

It's not called a moving standway, is it? Shift yourselves, family of five..

So glad you brought the kids to Vegas too. Don't get me started on that.

Except to say that despite Luxor's attempts to de-theme and make itself "hipper", the faux-Egyptian cheesiness is still alive and well and living in the gift shop's children's clothing section.

I was only in there looking for socks, obviously.

I was done at Luxor about half past midnight and I wasn't sure how late the tram would be running. I didn't fancy the thought of walking all the way back from Mandalay Bay to the car if I got involved in a long poker session there, but I wasn't quite ready to go home just yet and I hadn't brought my camera (otherwise I would have gone straight up to Mandalay Bay and taken the slow way home) so I wandered back to the MGM.

I'd parked over the road at the Tropicana. You have to fight with taxis at their bottleneck of an entrance, but dumping your vehicle in valet parking is the quickest and most convenient way I've found to get down to the South end of the Strip. You can jump out of the car and straight onto either of the escalators to the walkways across the street without even setting foot in the Trop itself!

But I did call inside after I was done with all the winning to donate a few dollars to the massage chairs before driving back to the hotel. They were a great find - I didn't think any casinos still had them. Some people think them tacky, apparently. The Tropicana either doesn't, or doesn't care.

I don't know why I felt compelled to take - let alone post - this picture, but here goes anyway.

That grainy exposure from my camera phone in dim light really doesn't do the shirt justice - it's much worse than it looks.

"21" the movie

nospam@example.com (luckydonut) — 2008-04-06T00:16:00Z

Here's a rarity - I saw a movie based on a book I'd actually read.

I think the only other time this has ever happened before was with Charlie and the Chocolate Factory.

There's no point trying to do an objective critique of the film because - let's be honest - it was going to have to be a real turkey for me not to love it. Just look at the ingredients: Vegas, gambling and maths geeks. It's already a winner on paper as far as I'm concerned. Who needs exploding helicopters?

Of course the little things bug me a bit. Like how they walk into the Hard Rock and then they're seen playing at Red Rock (it says so on the tables and chips, but you can't really see it in YouTube-def) - even though those casinos are about 10 miles apart. I guess having one word the same in the names is enough that we're not meant to notice.

Then suddenly they're inside Planet Hollywood in the same sequence (the interior is quite distinctive, even without the fake plastic jewels from the former Aladdin) and finally walk out of the Hard Rock into the morning sun (guitar-shaped door handles @ 1m59 in the trailer, if you're bothered).

In one scene, the team have a discussion about whether you should split pairs of 8s and 10s, with some saying "yes, always" and others saying it's a "sucker play" against a dealer's ace.

This is a team apparently comprised of very clever individuals who have figured out how to make money by working the mathematics of the game to their advantage. There's just no room for debate on topics like this - the numbers do the talking.

Blackjack is a game played to a fixed set of rules with a finite number of possibilities (you can't keep hitting for ever) so there can only be one right answer. These guys would know the correct play for every situation or they wouldn't be betting thousands of dollars of Kevin Spacey's money on a hand.

In fact, you should always split 8s - even against an ace as long as the dealer checks for Blackjack first, otherwise you surrender if possible and hit if not. You never split a pair of tens or face cards. Unless you're card counting, when a very high count can flip the strategy on its head. Or unless you "have a feeling", of course.

Of course, we see the big player splitting tens in the movie - and winning big because the deck is rich in tens. You see whenever the count is high, players invariably get 20 and the dealer invariably busts. That's just the way it works.

Perhaps including this uncertainty and - to some extent - misinformation about the game was payment in kind to the casinos where filming took place. Or perhaps I'm a little too cynical.

Anyhow, I still enjoyed the movie and it's always good to know I'm not as picky as some. Several reviews have plenty to say about just how bad this movie must be because it's not 100% true to life as every Hollywood movie obviously should be. They're taking it much too seriously, and they're all wrong.

John Chang, the real Micky Rosa
http://mickeyrosa.com/?p=13

MIT team member and poker pro, Andy Bloch:
http://www.pokerroad.com/_/pokerazzi/4-1-08

Blackjack author, Don Schlesinger:
http://www.advantageplayer.com/blackjack/forums/bj-main/webbbs.cgi?read=25030

Internet legend, the Wizard of Odds:
http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/21movie.html

Some dude called "Bootlegger" on Stanford Wong's BJ21.com forum:
http://www.bj21.com/boards/free/free_board/index.cgi?noframes;read=156592